Last updated Oct 30, 2005

Part 1:  John Winter -The Sobering News on the Science

Climate Change: A Primer

Energy from the sun heats the earth's surface and drives the earth's weather and climate; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. Atmospheric gases trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining heat like the glass panels of a greenhouse. Without this natural "greenhouse effect," temperatures would be much lower than they are now, and life as we know it would not be possible. Instead, thanks to greenhouse gases, the earth's average temperature is a more hospitable 60°F.

Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Certain human activities add to the levels of most of these naturally occurring gases:

Carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere when fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), wood, and garbage are burned.

Methane is emitted during the production of coal, natural gas, and oil and from the decomposition of organic wastes in landfills, and the raising of livestock.

Nitrous oxide is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste. Each greenhouse gas differs in its ability to absorb heat in the atmosphere. For example, methane traps over 21 times more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide absorbs 270 times more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide.

Once, all climate changes occurred naturally. Plant respiration and the decomposition of organic matter even though they release more than 10 times the CO2 released by human activities, have generally been in balance because plants and oceans absorbed the carbon dioxide available.

However, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased nearly 30%, methane concentrations have more than doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations have risen by about 15%. These increases have enhanced the heat-trapping capability of the earth's atmosphere.

So why are greenhouse gas concentrations increasing? There is now evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. Fossil fuels burned to run cars and trucks, heat homes and businesses, and power factories are responsible for about 98% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, 24% of methane emissions, and 18% of nitrous oxide emissions. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrial production, and mining also contribute a significant share of emissions.

The United States emits about one-fifth of total global greenhouse gases more per person more than any other country. In the US, approximately 6.6 tons of greenhouse gases are emitted per person every year. And emissions per person are increasing.

So scientists all agree there are more heat trapping gases in the atmosphere than there have been since we began keeping records of such things. And they agree that human activity is the cause. Now what does it all mean?

According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. The 1990's were the hottest decade of the entire century; perhaps even the millennium, and 1998, 2001, and 2002 were three of the hottest years ever recorded.

The snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and floating ice in the Arctic Ocean have decreased. And where does the snow and ice go when it melts away. Some evaporates increasing cloud cover, which could actually mitigate warming. The rest changes to water and ends up in the oceans. Globally, sea level has risen 4-8 inches over the past century. Worldwide precipitation over land has increased by about one percent. The frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased throughout much of the United States, witness Hurricanes Katrina and Rita last month.

Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level even more, and change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies. It could also affect human health, animals, and many types of ecosystems. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands, and features of some of our National Parks may be permanently altered.

Most of the United States is expected to warm, although sulfates may limit warming in some areas. Scientists currently are unable to determine which parts of the United States will become wetter or drier, but there is likely to be an overall trend toward increased precipitation and evaporation, more intense rainstorms, and drier soils.

Now I'll spend a few minutes on the long term implications: what might our grandchildren and great grandchildren see 100 years from now?

Estimating future emissions is difficult, because it depends on demographic, economic, technological, policy, and institutional developments. Several emissions scenarios have been developed based on differing projections of these underlying factors. For example, by 2100, in the absence of emissions control policies, carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to be 30-150% higher than today's levels.

Despite the uncertainty, scientists have said continuation of historical trends of greenhouse gas emissions will result in additional warming over the 21st century, with current projections of a global increase of 2.5ºF to 10.4ºF by 2100, with warming in the U.S. expected to be even higher. This warming will have real consequences for the United States and the world, for with that warming will also come additional sea-level rise that will gradually inundate coastal areas, change precipitation patterns, increase risk of droughts and floods, threaten biodiversity, and produce potential challenges for public health.These changes, over time, are referred to broadly as "climate change."

Most projections of future impacts do not address what could happen if warming continues beyond 2100, which is inevitable if steps to reduce emissions are not taken, or if the rate of change accelerates. Furthermore, the longer warming persists and the greater its magnitude, the greater the risk of climate "surprises" such as abrupt or catastrophic changes in the global climate. Even if we are able to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, some further warming is unavoidable. We must plan and take action now to adapt to the changes we will face as our climate changes.

Now let's turn to the window of opportunity to do something about climate change…
In 2002, the nations of the world agreed at Johannesburg, South Africa that primary responsibility for mitigating climate change and other unsustainable patterns of production and consumption must lie with the countries that cause the problems. Those are the high-income and some of the rapidly growing middle-income countries. That means you and me.

Addressing climate change is no simple task. To protect ourselves, our land, and our economy from the adverse effects of climate change, we must dramatically reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. To achieve this goal we must fundamentally transform the way we power our global economy, shifting away from a century's legacy of unrestrained fossil fuel use and its associated emissions in pursuit of more efficient and renewable sources of energy. Such a transformation will require society to engage in a concerted effort, over the near and long-term, to seek out new sources of energy.

In addition to the world must promote the long-term storage ("sequestration") of greenhouse gases in trees or deep in the oceans or on land. Additional measures must be implemented to mitigate the impact of climate change. What will the world be like when the climate has warmed? Where will be living, where will our food be produced, how do we protect all the communities located on the coastlines when 70% of the US population lives within 50 miles of the sea. And what of animals and plants, where will they go when the floods arrive? Creative approaches must be developed, decisions made, and actions taken.

What are those approaches? Joanne Steel will now tell us what we can all do to reduce the threat of climate change.

Part 2: Joanne Steele:  Why and How I Conserve Water

So rain falls down and goes into your backyard or the Ashokan or Cooper Lake and ends up in your well (or the municipality's). If the town gets the rainwater, it will filter it, treat it. Or your backyard gets it and treats it and treats it over and over again (until you need your own treatment apparatus). The town and you put those filters with goop on them somewhere on the land. If it isn't in your backyard, then it's in someone else's. "Do not cause done unto others that which you would not have caused done onto yourself."

Anyone have a good reason to NOT conserve water? A good MORAL reason? I don't. I didn't, either.  The next water out of your tap won't be as clean as the previous. (Put a gallon jug of water on the dais.) This is a gallon of water, let's say, of planet Earth. Anyone care to guess how much of this water is drinkable without treatment? All the rain… all the oceans…the lakes…hmmm? (Remove the cap of the gallon. Produce an eye dropper. Stick it in the gallon. Squeeze one drop onto your palm.) Industrial pollution of the earth that filters the rain. Industrial pollution of the air, the rain falls through. We consume, consume…More waste, more pollution. New York City currently trucks out of town (whose backyard?) tractor-trailer loads of waste…Picture a tractor-trailer full of waste. Now picture 450 of them. Each day! Polluted earth filters the rain. 

So I've been conserving water. At home and wherever I go. It's now second nature, but it was hard to train myself. It took me an embarrassing long time. I hope you can train yourself quicker than I was able. I had bad habits. Maybe I had the "hurry habit": fast, fast… I'd turn on the tap full blast to rinse a dish or spoon. Darn! I forgot again. So I just took a breath, turned the water down to a pencil stream. Darn! I had to force myself. I was petulant, arrogant. Exhaling,  I rotate the dishes, moving them under the thin stream. I fought the impatience. I won. Pencil thin. Yes! (Squeeze another drop of water onto the dais or your palm.)

Onward to the bathroom! Sink, shower, toilet. At my sink, and I do this procedure everywhere…. I turn the water on (or sometimes, if I'm not home, it turns itself on). I stick my hands under the water to get them wet. Now here's that step B: I turn the water off while I scrub my hands

with soap. I say the alphabet in order to allow the soap time to kill bacteria. Then I turn the water back on and rinse. Then, breaking sterilization, I turn the water off. Then dry them. I use 'holy water if I'm going to fix or eat food next. In commercial settings, I take at most two pushes on the paper bar to dry my hands. Again, I had to fight the "hurry habit." After using nearly completely the two segments of paper towel, my hands are dry. I notice it takes more time to use only two segments than a bunch of them. Try using just two. You'll see. 450 tractor-trailer loads. (Squeeze another drop of water onto your palm.) 

In my shower I have a "water saver" disc in the shower head. I take what I discovered sailor's call a "naval shower." I step into the shower and wet up. The water is never much colder than 55 degrees. Now that is cold in winter, so I'll waste a little water to heat it up a little in the winter. In the summer, well, it hasn't killed me yet. It's like swimming off the Maine coast. It's OK is you're in long enough just to get wet! Some of the time I include my hair. Now here's that step B: I turn the water off. I soap up and/or shampoo. Then on with the water to rinse. That's it. Total water running time is less than a minute, or two in winter. Try it. You'll see. I hope, of course, that you know that hands are much better massage instruments than water…You know that, right?

Oh, also, I put a little basin in the shower, to catch any wasted water from the shower head. I use that basin water to flush the toilet, when I do flush. (Squeeze another drop of water onto the dais or your palm.)  If it's yellow let it mellow…if it's brown, flush it down. Hopefully, that's a water saver 1.6 gallon toilet you're flushing. I let it mellow everywhere, taking into account if there will be someone after me soon  enough before smelling sets in, about 24 hours, depending on the temperature. I put the seat down. If no one else will use the toilet in a whole day, then I'll flush. Hardly a toilet I'd use would have no one else's use in 24 hours though. I let it mellow everywhere, but not here at the UU if it's close to 1 PM on Sunday. Earlier, I'll let it mellow. 450 tractor-trailer loads of waste every day. (Squeeze another drop of water onto the dais or your palm.)

Part 3:  Mike Ignatowski

There are many things that can be done to lesson the impact of global climate change, but global climate change will happen - it is too late to actually prevent it.  In fact, we are already experiencing the early stages of it.  And the CO2 we've already produced will linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.  This is a problem that our descendants will be dealing with for a long time.

So what can we do?   There are two main things. One is to start working on controlling greenhouse gas emissions to prevent some of the truly devastating possible consequences in the future, such as changing the Gulf stream ocean current.  The other is to start dealing with the consequences of global climate change.  How do we do that?  Well, recent history has taught us one very important lesson - we better get real good at building levees!


What about the public attitude?
The public is actually much greener than its political leaders.  After all, Americans invented environmentalism, and numerous polls have consistently found a large majority of both Democrats and Republicans are in favor of significant action to address global warming.  


What is our government doing?
The current administration in Washington is not stepping up to the challenge.  But to be honest, neither did the administration before them, nor the one before that.  But let's look beyond the White House.  

I want to show you a fuzzy photo of a group of government officials standing in front of a glacier in Alaska that is rapidly shrinking.  Their tour was made to dramatize the effects of global warming, and to push hard for government efforts to do something about it. This group consisted of 3 Republican senators and one Democratic senator.  The two leaders of the group are Sen John McKain and Sen Hillary Clinton.  There is a very good chance that these two people will be the next presidential candidates.  Think about it. 



One of the greenest governors in the country, the Republican governator from California, is helping his state take the lead in setting new mileage and emission standards for automobiles.  New York state has made commitments to use renewable energy, and has joined other New England state to set voluntary greenhouse emissions caps.

In the Senate, the McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act was introduced to control greenhouse gas emissions nationally. It was defeated when it was voted on this past June, though both NY Senators voted for it.  We will have letters at the table in back after the service that you can sign to encourage senators to continue supporting the Climate Stewardship Act.  


What are religious organizations doing?
This is beginning to receive major focus from  a surprisingly wide variety of religious communities because they recognize many "environmental" problems are fundamentally spiritual problems.  For example, the National Association of Evangelicals, a group generally know as quite conservative, has formed the Evangelical Environment Network.  They will begin circulating a charter next month calling for a fight against global warming, a crisis of "biblical proportions" and for its members to live sustainably.  They  hasten to add that supporting their agenda does not mean that people "have to become liberal weirdoes."

Surprisingly, the UUs actually have some work to do to catch up.  I'll point out two recent efforts being made though.

UUA President Bill Sinkford has lent his support to an online virtual march on global warming that hopes to demonstrate a vast consensus for action on global warming.   He has encourage all UUs to sign up and support him, and you can do so on the form in back after this service, or online at the web address listed in the order of service.  No, you don't have to do any actual marching, that's why they call it a virtual march.

Another significant item is that last year at the UUA General Assembly, "The Threat of Global Warming" was chosen as our study/action issue.  An initial draft statement is now available on the web at the address in your order of service, and a few copies will be at the back table.  The draft includes a long list of action items to enable UUs to become agents for positive change in this arena.   Congregations have been asked to review this and respond with comments by March 1st.  We will be sponsoring discussion of this draft statement here in the coming months.  

And by the way, we will be looking very carefully at making our new buildings here as environmentally friendly as possible.  


Why is Global Climate Change a Serious Moral Issues?
First, dealing with global climate change calls for us to behave ethically on an international scale.  The people producing the most greenhouse gasses will generally not be the ones most effected by it.  The poor and least able to cope, especially in the developing world will be the hardest hit.  People in wealthy countries will have the resources to better cope with the changes.  But this means that we will also have to be prepared to deal with increased disasters around the world from floods, droughts, violent storms, the spread of disease, and huge numbers of refugees.  To whom much is given, much is expected.

Not only is this an unprecedented  international issue, but it is an unprecedented intergenerational issue.  There is an old guideline from the Iroquois which states that every decision should be made by considering its impact on the next seven generations.  That works out to be about 175 years.  We are faced with a situation were the decisions we make now, and the path we put ourselves on, may have a significant impact on the world our descendants live in for the next thousand years.

Taking serious action on climate change is likely to raise serious, and perhaps uncomfortable, questions about who we are and what we want to be.   We will have to rethink the environmental movement and it's place in our priorities.   The individualistic "ownership society" will have to start giving way to focusing on managing the commons.  Hopefully greed, materialism and conspicuous consumption will start giving way to building livable communities.  Fortunately hurricane Katrina may have been a major tipping point in changing public attitudes.

As Al Gore recently said, "This is a moral moment. This is not ultimately about any scientific debate or political dialogue. Ultimately it is about who we are as human beings. It is about our capacity to transcend our own limitations. To rise to this new occasion."

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